Moderate price increases expected in 2018

The environs are an increasingly popular alternative

Press release | Hamburg

The prices for houses and apartments already standing in Hamburg and its environs will rise again in 2018 in nearly all locations, albeit by less than in 2017. Hamburg property services provider Grossmann & Berger forecasts that the price of standard apartments/condominiums* in the city area will rise by 2.6% and that standard single-family house* prices will increase by 2.2%. The G&B Price Trend indicates that, as was the case in 2017, growth in the environs will be higher than in the city in 2018 - house prices are set to rise by 3.4% and apartments to cost 3.6% more.
Halving the ECB bond-buying programme is a price restraint
“The growth rates are lower because prices are already high. And the European Central Bank’s announcement that the bond buying programme will be halved in 2018 plays a role too,” says managing director Lars Seidel, commenting on the G&B Price Trend which is a key feature of the Market Survey on the Stock of Residential properties. Limiting the ECB bond buying programme could push up mortgage rates and make conditions for home-buyers less favourable than they have been for some time. “In 2018, therefore, prices will tend to rise most in those areas where they are still below 3,000 euros per square metre of living space. But this will not depress demand,” says Andreas Gnielka, head of residential building stock/letting. In the vast majority of cases, the prices that Grossmann & Berger had forecast for 2017 have proved correct. Accordingly, the average prices being paid for properties in the city area did indeed rise by 2.3% for houses and by 5.6% for apartments. Predictions for the environs were also proved right, with growth of 8.0% for apartments and 3.6% for houses.
Apartments in the environs cost almost as much as houses
The average prices the seller of an apartment or house in the Hamburg city area may expect to realize in 2018 are €3,900/m² and €4,600/m² of living space respectively. In the environs the average selling price to be expected for a house is €3,000/m² and for an apartment €2,900/m² of living space. “Comparisons over five years show that within Hamburg city limits the prices of apartments and houses have risen in tandem. Houses remain consistently more expensive than apartments,” says Gnielka. “Following a surge between 2016 and 2017 the difference between the average price of an apartment and of a house in the environs has narrowed to about 100 euros per square metre of living space.” The reason for this is the ongoing trend towards buying property, in particular an apartment, in the environs, in response to the high level of prices inside Hamburg city limits. This trend is reflected in Ahrensburg, where Grossmann & Berger expect to see the biggest rate of increase - at +18.5%.
City area 2018: Reasonable prices in the south
The G&B Price Trend reveals that Harvestehude will be the most expensive district next year too. Apartments here can expect to sell for an average of €7,700/m² of living space, houses for €9,800/m²***. The district of Hausbruch has the lowest house prices, Rönneburg the lowest-priced apartments. In 2018 Grossmann & Berger expects the average selling prices in these two districts in the south of Hamburg to be €2,400/m² of living space.
Environs 2018: Biggest range of prices seen in the east
In the environs, the G&B Price Trend points to Reinbek/Wentorf as an area with the highest average prices for houses - €3,600/m² of living space - whereas Wohltorf/Aumühle has the most expensive apartments, likewise selling for an average of €3,600/m² of living space. Property sellers in 2018 will realize the least for houses in Rausdorf, where prices average €1,200/m², and for apartments in Todendorf, where the average is €1,400/m². All these places are in the eastern environs of Hamburg. Of all the districts in the environs included in the survey, this region has the greatest spread of prices.
“Rising Stars” 2018: Potential in peripheral areas
In terms of demand and price growth Grossmann & Berger sees particular potential in six districts within the city and five in the environs. In the city area, Horn, Hamm, Harburg and Altona North joined Neugraben-Fischbek and Billstedt in the ranks of “Rising Stars”****. Grossmann & Berger expects the “Rising Star” Neugraben-Fischbek to see the biggest increases in apartment prices, set to rise by 17.4% and Harburg to post the biggest rise in house prices - up 16.0%. Turning to the environs, Grossmann & Berger expects Norderstedt, Ahrensburg and Reinbek to remain “Rising Stars” in 2018 and that Rosengarten will become established as a new “Rising Star” in the environs. The biggest rise in apartment prices in the environs’ “Rising Stars” will be +18.5% in Ahrensburg, whereas Rosengarten will post the biggest rise in house prices at +11.5%.

G&B Price Trend: Assessment of the attainable prices for standard properties, well constructed and fitted out, in good residential neighbourhoods:
* Standard condominium: vacant, 3 rooms, around 80 m² living space, 1st upper floor, lift (elevator), fitted kitchen
** Standard single family house: detached, with cellar, at least 130m² of living space, plot size typical for the location
*** Standard town villa: 2 to 3.5 stories, at least 150 m² of living space, lavish fit-out, garden
**** Rising Stars: Evaluation of all districts in Hamburg city area and the environs in terms of prices, changes in prices, changing demand, accessibility via train services, quality of location, development prospects

Left: Grossmann & Berger expects a town villa in Harvestehude to sell for an average price of €9,800/m² in 2018
Right: In 2018 Ahrensburg will retain its status as a “Rising Star” of the environs displaying particular potential. Prices for houses and villas in Ahrensburg will grow by 9.76% in 2018
Source, chart: Grossmann & Berger Research
Source, photo: Grossmann & Berger GmbH

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